Poker thinking, part I: the Fundamental Theorem

I play all kinds of games, but just by looking at the time invested, there's no question that WeBL and poker are my top choices.

The two games share quite a few characteristics, too. They're both strategy games with an element of randomness (or luck) involved. To be successful in either, you need some basic understanding of the underlying math. Both reward creative thinking, and both are played against other people, which brings the psychological aspects into play.

But while there are tons of poker literature out there, there's not quite the same amount of books available about WeBL for some odd reason. However, since the two games share similar aspects, would it be possible to take some of the advice from the poker books and see if it translates into WeBL? I believe the answer is yes.

David Sklansky, the famous poker theoretician, states the fundamental theorem of poker in his book "The Theory of Poker". Let's see if Sklansky's principle could be translated to a "fundamental theorem of WeBL":

"Every time you choose a line for a round differently from the way you would have chosen if you knew your opponent's fight plan, they gain; and every time you choose the same line you would have chosen if you knew their fight plan, they lose." And vice-versa.

Just like poker, WeBL is a game of incomplete information, so apart from those cases where we can pretty much say we do know our opponent's fp, we should choose a strategy which maximises our expected value against a range of actions our opponent might take. (In poker, this would be equivalent to making our decision based on our hand strength and the range of hands we think he might have for the situation).

Let's take an example. Suppose you have a Strength biased balanced fighter facing a KP dancer. For the last round you have this line:

12) if score = 0 and opponent = strong then x/x/x;

What is the best course of action here?

So, you're simmed the fight and know that if you try to flash him at this point with 5H/10/5 (inside), you will either knock him down or out if he slaps with something like 11/1/8 (outside), but will get knocked out yourself if he goes 5H/9/6 (counter) himself. And, if you slap with 12/1/7 (feint), you will win if he goes 9/1/10 (outside), but lose by getting stunned or knocked down if he flashes with 5H/10/5 (counter).

It's a tricky situation, but in many cases, you can choose the right line by scouting your opponent's tendencies in similar situations. You might notice, for example, that your opponent always flashes in this spot. This would make your decision-making here a lot easier - just go 5H/9/6 (clinch) yourself to take him out.

You could even assign percentile values for the likelihood of different actions for your opponent, and calculate which action would have the best expectation in this situation... but I doubt not many of us would be willing to do that much work.

Still, it's a good idea to develop the habit of thinking about what your opponent is most likely to try in each situation, ie. what his range of actions are for each situation and what line would most likely work best against that range - instead of just one or two options.

More to come on the subject, so stay tuned!

See you in the ring,

FBG